After two assassination attempts and notwithstanding his age, it is only proper to ask, what if Trump dies before the election? If Donald Trump were to pass away before the 2024 election, the process of replacing him as the Republican nominee would depend on the timing. Here are the possible scenarios: Before the Republican Convention: If Trump dies or withdraws before the convention, delegates who were pledged to him would be freed up. A new nominee would be selected at the convention, which could become brokered if no candidate has a majority.

After the Convention, Before Election Day: If Trump dies after securing the nomination but before the election, the Republican National Committee (RNC) would vote to choose a replacement. This body consists of several hundred state and local party leaders who would convene to select the new nominee. After Election Day, Before the Electoral College Votes: If Trump dies after winning the popular vote but before the Electoral College meets, there could be significant constitutional confusion. The Electoral College would still cast its votes, but electors might have discretion to vote for a replacement chosen by the party, or they may vote based on state law, leading to potential conflicts.

After the Electoral College, Before Inauguration: If Trump were to win the election and die after the Electoral College has voted but before Inauguration Day, the vice president-elect (likely his running mate) would be sworn in as president according to the 20th Amendment. Historically, the process of replacing a candidate, particularly if they pass away after Election Day, can be murky and influenced by state laws, party rules, and constitutional provisions.

If the Republican candidate dies or is incapacitated after the convention and before Election Day, the Republican National Committee (RNC) will meet to select a presidential candidate and/or vice-presidential candidate under Rule 9 of party rules.

Rule 9 is a rabbit hole that if you want to go down you might drown in the possible scenarios and never resurface from the hole anymore smarter than you were when you went down the rabbit hole in the first place.

Elaine Kamarck’s Brookings article on September 7, 2023, discusses what would happen if a presidential candidate were to die or become incapacitated before taking office. The key points are as follows:

Party Control: Political parties control the nomination process. If a candidate becomes unable to run, the party’s delegates—elected through various state conventions—would become uncommitted. This would lead to a contested convention, where a new nominee is selected based on the delegates’ votes.

Replacing the Candidate: If a nominee dies or is incapacitated after the convention but before the general election, the Republican National Committee (RNC) or the Democratic National Committee (DNC) would convene in a special session. The members of these committees (168 in the RNC and 426 in the DNC) would vote to choose a new candidate, but the replacement does not automatically extend to the vice-presidential nominee.

Electoral College: If the candidate dies after winning the election but before taking office, the Electoral College, composed of 535 electors, would vote for a replacement based on their state’s preferences, adhering to state laws. In essence, the process is governed by party rules and the political system, with key decisions resting with party delegates and committees. If Trump dies before Inauguration Day then the shit will hit the fan, and tens of millions of voters will be devasted.

C. Rich

CRich@AmericaSpeaksInk.com

C. Rich

C. Rich is the voice behind America Speaks Ink, home to the America First Movement. As an author, freelance ghostwriter, poet, and blogger, C. Rich brings a “baked-in” perspective shaped by growing up on the streets and beaches of South Florida in the 1970s-1980s and brings a quintessential Generation-X point of view.

Rich’s writing journey began in 2008 with coverage of the Casey Anthony trial and has since evolved into a wide-ranging exploration of politics, culture, and the issues that define our times. Follow C. Rich’s writing odyssey here at America Speaks Ink and on Amazon with a multi-book series on Donald Trump called “Trump Era: The MAGA Files” and many other books and subjects C. Rich is known to cover.  CRich@AmericaSpeaksInk.com

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